NVDA ▼ -5.7% - NVIDIA Corporation
Given NYT article, I think Jensen is gone at
$NVDA
, potentially by tomorrow morning with my guess the CFO as interim-CEO. But I think the stock bottoms on a RELATIVE basis compared to the semi index post earnings next week at the latest. The new interim CEO will probably want to set a low bar and the stock could trade at a single digit PE vs 11x currently on CY26. There are 40K employees at Nvidia and Jensen was a generational CEO but the pipeline of products I believe will sustain the company for ~2 years. There is a deep bench of direct reports. The analogy I would give is Steve Jobs took his medical leave in Jan-2011 and sadly died in October.
$AAPL
stock however rose 26%/26% in 2011/12 vs S&P 0/+12% Nasdaq -2/+14% on blistering revenue growth of 66%/45% in FY11/12. It took till year 3 for Apple revenue growth to slow dramatically to <10% in FY13 and then the stock massively underperformed that year. For the AI trade and Nvidia’s stock, the bigger question for me remains the same. Was June 22nd the top in the AI trade overall? I do not think so given Agentic AI just started this year. OpenClaw came out in January for the tech savvy and Muse from Meta for the rest of us in September with others introduced since then. Agentic requires 10-100x more tokens. But time will tell if that was THE TOP. From a technical standpoint, it does not matter if that was THE TOP. There has been forced selling in AI stocks and this Nvidia news is likely to clean out the rest. Why does it not matter? Even if it is March of 2000 and Nasdaq declines 78% from peak to trough over 2 ½ years, there were still 7 rallies that averaged 25% along the way back then. I think another one started on 11/5 but time will tell. Stay nimble and best of luck. Dan Niles
11-NOV-2026 06:22 PM ET
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More filings for $NVDA
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