The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.4 percent on November 4, down from 3.7 percent on November 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.9 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and 10.6 percent. 04-NOV-2026 12:02 PM ET