The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.5 percent on October 20, down from 3.6 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, modest increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures and the real change in private inventories were more than offset by modest declines in the nowcasts of real private fixed investment, real net exports, and real government expenditures. 20-OCT-2026 11:27 AM ET