The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 15, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning’s retail sales and inventories reports from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter annualized real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent was partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from 1.96 percentage points to 1.87 percentage points. 15-OCT-2026 11:24 AM ET