CRWV ▼ -16.9% - CoreWeave, Inc. $CRWV NBIS IREN Gartner warns more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face write-down risk by 2030, predicting over 80% of neocloud providers will cease independent operations. * Spending: AI providers are projected to invest nearly $1 trillion in 2026 and another $6 trillion through 2030. * Revenue gap: Gartner estimates data center owners need $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue to cover spending, financing costs and a 12% return, versus no more than $3.6 trillion in AI revenue attributable to data centers. * Revenue capture: Gartner expects infrastructure owners to earn less than half of AI revenue, with much of the market operating through asset-light business models. * Write-down risk: More than $4 trillion in asset value could face impairment risk through 2032, with the targeted 12% return unlikely before late 2032. * Neocloud economics: AI cloud infrastructure spending is projected to grow from $66 billion in 2027 to $174 billion in 2030, potentially too slowly to recover investments before current-generation chips become obsolete. * Industry shakeout: Gartner expects over 80% of neoclouds to lose independence by 2030 as cost pressures mount. Diversified hyperscalers have greater financial flexibility. 14-OCT-2026 05:10 PM ET