The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on October 6, unchanged from October 1 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.3 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 21.5 percent were offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from -2.59 percentage points to -2.69 percentage points. 06-OCT-2026 11:00 AM ET