The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.0 percent on September 25, down from 5.1 percent on September 17. After releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 19.2 percent to 18.7 percent. 25-SEP-2026 10:19 AM ET