The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 4.8 percent on September 1, up from 4.6 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 14.5 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 21.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.14 percentage points to -1.32 percentage points. 01-SEP-2026 11:52 AM ET